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How to Invest in Asia
Hardship breeds success. That’s true for individuals, companies even entire nations. And it’s also true for me, Tony Sagami, Asia Specialist at Money and Markets. It’s why the United States sprang forward after the Great Depression. It’s why China, Japan and even formerly dirt-poor India are leaping ahead today. And it’s a fundamental principle that can unlock great investment opportunities for you in the months ahead. In a moment, I’ll show you exactly how and where. But first, let me tell

Thinking Inside the Box: Input-Output
Anyone who has an interest on the real side of Turkish economy might have encountered the famous sketch of industrial production and exports rising together from 2002 and onwards. The common interpretation of this relationship is that the manufacturing sector is becoming more outward-looking and exports are the main driver behind industrial growth. Most of the time, no comment is made about imports and are omitted from the analysis, as if everyone has come to an agreement on the fact that an

Focus on the Bulls Eye
Every day that we trade, we need to ensure that we have a specific goal in mind. Without any goals, we will never know if we had a successful trading session or not. Profit is not the only indicator for success. The best traders continue to fine tune their goals and the target gets smaller and smaller. If you aim for the bulls eye, even if you miss, you still end up with a good result, because when you aim small even if you make an error, those errors are also small. Listen to the author’s

The Power of Fear
Fear can be a very powerful emotion, yet for some it can cause disaster and for others it drives them towards new levels of success. As a trader we need to analyze and understand what causes us to be fearful when we trade and how it affects us. Then we need to use that emotion of fear to move us to become a better trader. Listen to the author’s thoughts

Decide To Believe That You Can
Emotions can be a roller coaster for some and a gentle road for others. Successful traders make a conscious decision that no matter what happens during their trading session they will stay calm and in control. If you truly believe that you can do something, it is amazing how successful you can become. Trading takes belief abd when you finally decide that you CAN do this, you have taken the first step towards growth and higher levels of success. Listen to the author’s thoughts

Fibonacci Profit Objectives
This article is taken from the Trader’s Journal magazine (May 2008 issue) The author, Joe DiNapoli, is a veteran trader with over 40 years of solid market trading experience. He is also a dogged and thorough researcher, an internationally recognized lecturer, and a widely acclaimed author. Joe, a registered C.T.A. for over 15 years, has taught his techniques in the major financial capitals of Europe, Asia, Russia, the Middle East and South Africa as well as in the United States. His articles

Top ten tips for trading FX
How to make money from money 1 .Practice before you start trading with real money. Could you imagine an athlete going to the Olympic Games without preparation and training? Make sure you have practised your trading on a demo platform and get comfortable with it and your trading style before committing real money. 2 .Know what moves currency markets. Like any asset class, there are a number of factors that drive currency performance. A country?s macroeconomic situation can have a major

Prediction Markets as Forecasting Tools: From Google to the U.S. Elections
Do you have a hunch about who will be the next U.S, president? Do you want to bet on it? It is very easy, go to the Wall Street Journal Political Market website and play. The WSJ Political Market is an exchange marketplace where traded ?stocks? are political or economic outcomes and the currency is imaginary. There you can trade on political issues such as the next President or on economic ones, such as the U.S. going into recession or the Fed Funds rate being lower than 1% at the end of 2008.

In the Quest for the Nexus of Financial Markets
It is known that various asset returns possess significant interrelations, and that financial returns and volatilities move together over time across assets and markets, since they are all part of a greater portfolio. In this manner, it is expected that there may be a correlation between the exchange rates, interest rates and the stock market in Turkey. Moreover, price movements in one market are also expected to spread to another. Therefore, the dynamic relationship between these three

A trader’s Guide to Stress and Coping
This article is taken from the Forex Journal (June 2008 issue). The author, Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY and author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003). As Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago, he has mentored numerous professional traders and coordinated a training program for traders. Brett N. Steenbarger helps us understand the

Regional Perspectives
Southern Europe Although adoption is somewhat slower than other countries, Southern Europe is gradually starting to embrace eFX. Some of the reasons behind this include cultural, regulatory and economic challenges across the different countries in this area. Alberto Muņoz, chief analyst at FXstreet.com portal, comments: ?e-FX trading has just started in southern Europe and we think it’s going to grow exponentially in the next two to three years, as there are more traders with better trading

Using Stops effectively
This article is taken from the Forex Journal (May 2008 issue). The author, Sunil Mangwani is a Physics graduate with a Diploma in Financial Management. He has been trading the Forex market for the last 6 years and devises simple trading strategies based on his vast knowledge and in-depth study in the field of technical analysis. Sunil Mangwani will be key speaker at the FXstreet.com International Traders Conference in 2008 October 29-31 - Barcelona (Spain) Sunil Mangwani leads a discussion on

Different uses of RSI in forex
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most widely used technical indicators by traders. The RSI is an oscillator because it is an index whose value tends to swing between an upper limit value and a lower limit value. It is used primarily to help identify overbought or oversold conditions in a particular currency, as it is formulated to fluctuate between 0 and 100, enabling fixed overbought and oversold levels. It does this by confirming changes in momentum which signals an imminent

Your P.R.I.M.E.R for Successful Trading
All successful traders know what they need to do and then they just do it. Their monetary results are not the focus for them. It is the process and the ability to follow it consistently that keeps them at the top of the trading world. Each of us must learn how to prepare and proceed with direction and conviction. When we do this, we will see continued growth and confidence in our trading sessions Listen to the author’s thoughts   

Just Be Yourself
Success in all aspects of life seem to follow those who do not try to act like someone else, but rather have a foundation of knowing who they are and act in that manner. Many traders seem to want to act like other traders who have recently had a string of successes instead of being committed to their own strategy and trading style. To be the best we can and have consistent success in trading takes a devotion and passion to learning our strengths and weaknesses and applying our skills to match

Fix Your Eyes Forward and Not In The Past
Some of the greatest successes have been accomplished not long after a person had reached the end of their rope. They had been beat down so much they had their backs to the wall and were ready to quit. but they did not. Trading can easily cause us to get to this point unless we decide that when we hit the most difficult times in our trading is the exact time when we can emerge with more power and passion than every before. Give yourself a push and decide what you truly want to accomplish and

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Technical Analysis Reports. Get the right information that comes from the charts by reputable analysts in different areas: Elliott waves, indicators analysis, candlestick charts, etc.

Weekly Technical Commentary
USD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 105.65..105.00..103.70..102.50. Resistance 107.75..108.59..109.00..111.60 Surprisingly unaffected by the storm clouds gathering all round. The corrective rally continues to hold in a very neat channel and at-the-money implied volatility has stabilised around 11.00%. The Technical picture is still very inconclusive and chart levels poor but we feel that shortly signs of forming an interim top will emerge. Here and on generalised US dollar weakness, thin summer

Currency Technical Report
EUR/USD Resistance :1,5925/ 1,5950-55/ 1,5975/ 1,6020/ 1,6050/ 1,6080 Support : 1,5675-80/ 1,5635/ 1,5580/ 1,5525 Comment : After oil reaching new all time highs, and market?s fears that US banking sector may collapse due to Freddie Mac?s and Fannie Mae?s liquidity problems, euro rallied during Friday?s US Session, within a panic environment. The way and the time that the move was formed may have had this purpose; to cause panic and hit stops set above the technical resistance of 1.5900-10.

gbp/usd has weakened after PPI input and output publication
CHF The pre-planned breakout variant for sells has been realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator having marked the progress of bearish activity preserves the priority of attendant planning for today. Hence and because of ascending direction of indicator chart with the feature of strengthening of bullish counteraction, we assume a possibility of pair return to resistance range 1.0220/40, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development according to

Forex Technical Analysis on Majors
EUR/USD Current level-1.5881 EUR/USD is in an uptrend from recent bottom at 1.5301, that was the final of the prolonged consolidation since 1.5909 (17 March 2008). Technical indicators are slowly rising and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.5609 and 1.5095.     The sharp Friday’s advance beyond 1.5909 has denied our idea, that a there is one more swing to come, down to 1.5584, as a third part of the consolidation pattern since 1.5909.

Euro-Bund future ?Sep 2008
Comment: The spread between Bunds and US Treasuries should narrow as generalised US dollar weakness continues throughout the summer. The Bund?s recovery has stalled at trendline and Fibonacci resistance, and by the Ichimoku ?cloud?, suggesting we shall consolidate below 112.50 this week, possibly pulling back all the way down to 110.50. Late this month and by the end of August another round of short-covering taking the contract back to 113.00/113.50. Before year-end we feel that benchmark

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shocked the market
Good morning from Hamburg. At the end of last week, large US mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shocked the equity markets, as well as the Forex market, with higher than expected losses. With upcoming US elections, it is a good opportunity for politicians to use it in their own election campaigns. This is very dangerous for the fight against the inflation. It is still unsure how the interest rates will move in the next month. Market review The USD lost on Friday after the Fed and the

Technical Summary for Majors
DAILY MARKET REPORT 14.07.2008 EUR/USD Has accelerated advance following last Friday’s minor bull pennant breakout to extend upswing from 1.5611 higher low, 07 July, which took out prior 1.5910 high, 03 July. Further rise is set to test April’s record high at 1.6020 and 1.6050 zones. Pullback for now seeks a swing low over 1.5805/00 while 60-hour/10-day MA bull crossover beckons. Res: 1.5978, 1.6002, 1.6020, 1.6050 Sup: 1.5876, 1.5836, 1.5795, 1.5765 USD/JPY Has broken sharply out of past

Daily Forex Technical Report - Markets Stabilized by FNM/FRE Rescue Package
Action Insight Daily Report Markets Stabilized by FNM/FRE Rescue Package Markets are stabilized by US Treasury and Fed’s rescue package to save Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from further troubles and ensure both Government Sponsored Enterprises to continue to be key providers of mortgage credits in the US. Treasury Paulson asked Congress to inject capital into both GSEs trough investments and loans, including buying shares of both of them. Fed also announced it will provide liquidity by allowing

EUR: Attempt small longs at 1.5885 but only if prepared to add to 1.5800
EUR Comment: To put it crudely: if the US government takes over all $5 trillion of the GSE home lenders the debt-to-GDP ratio would double to 100% (and then the rating agencies would have to re-do their sums). Eventually this will sink in to investor psyche. We expect generalised US dollar weakness over the next six months, a move which may well gather very considerable momentum. This week allow for several cautious upside tests at the record high of 1.6020. A weekly close above here should

EUR/USD: (1.5896) Toying back with channel bottom off 1.5302 (see graph)
Rebound from 1.5302 extended to a new recovery high, with pair currently toying back with channel bottom (see graph): 1st Support area at 1.5888/ .5884 (daily envelope bottom/ current reaction low off 1.5970), with next levels at 1.5822 (weekly envelope bottom), ahead of 1.5808/ .5800 (daily Short Term Moving Average?/ break-up daily July 10) and 1.5779 (daily Medium Term Moving Average?/ tough on 1st attempts. Resistance at 1.5958/ .5970 (daily Bollinger top/ today?s high?): suspect tough on

Asia Session Performance

Sinking stocks hurt the dollar on Friday
The confluence of geopolitical and systemic risk, and sinking stocks hurt the dollar on Friday. On Sunday, the Treasury and Federal Reserve produced sweeping steps to support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and attempt to avoid a potential meltdown in global financial markets. The Fed said both companies could access its discount window for emergency cash and the Treasury said that it would temporarily increase its line of credit to them, as well as purchase equity in them, if necessary. Expect a

The EUR/ USD gives more surprises + Watching for a blow-off top on the AUD/USD
EURUSD Last week’s rejection of 1.5912 lasted for a few days however after Friday’s move above that price point we have to assume a new high above 1.6020 is possible. What is recommended here in trading a currency that is this volatile is to actually have more patients and enter only when absolutely all your conditions for a  trade have been met. In short, when things are this crazy one needs even more patients. AUDUSD Last week I wrote about this pair looking to make one last high

Fxtechtrade
Several words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) :  1.4692 and 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386, 1.5592 and 1.5660. Break of the letter will lead to 1.5865, 1.7280 and 1.9430. Support (daily close) : : 1.4366 , 1.3972, 1.3770 and 1.3567. Then 1.3411, 1.3263, 1.3106 and  1.2964 (published on  07.11.2007) . Dow Jones : Resistance(daily close) : 11 520.30 , 11 970.00, 12 152.82, 12 600.24, 12 982.20, 13 162.50 and 13 320.00. Then 13 567.60, 13 668.74 ? 13 792.53.

EURUSD broke above 1.5908 resistance
EURUSD broke above 1.5908 resistance. Further rise to test 1.6019 (Apr 22 high) long term key resistance is still possible later today. A break of this level will indicate that the sideways consolidation in range between 1.5284 and 1.6019 has completed, and the pair has been back to long term uptrend. As long as 1.6019 resistance holds, we?d expect down trend to resume, and pullback to retest 1.5611 level is still possible.

US Session Performance

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Fundamental Market View - The latest currency trading and market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

inflation data in the spotlight
It is mid-summer and it is getting hot on the financial markets. The upcoming week is full of inflation reports. Those will decide on monetary policy of central banks so investors need to pay close attention to them. On Tuesday a bunch of important reports will be published. The GBP will certainly react to the CPI publication. This report will show how the British economy is doing (recently not so well) and maybe give another problem to the British Monetary Policy Council. The same day we

Daily FX Commentary
CPI data key for Sterling direction Sterling found support close to 0.80 against the Euro for most of the day, but dipped through this level late in US trading as liquidity declined and global financial risk increased. A bid approach for the Alliance & Leicester banking group, assumed to be from Santander, provided some Sterling support on expectations over merger-related capital inflows. UK input producer prices rose 2.1% in June with output prices rising 0.9% over the month. The monthly

Asian Session - Paulson to the Resue
Market Brief The Usd continued to come under significant selling pressure in Asian session as the bearish dollar sentiment carried over the weekend. EurUsd gapped at the open, quickly trading to 1.5971, however Gbp/Usd which rallied at the open was unable to sustain the upwards momentum and traded lower from 1.9914 to 1.9823. Commodity currencies traded basically sideways with Aud/Usd jumping between 0.9670 to 0.9711 and Usd/Cad moving slightly upward from 1.0070 to 1.0118. Jpy fueled carry

Supported by tax rebates and lax monetary policy
Retail & Food Services Sales (June, Tuesday 8:30 ET) F: 0.2, 0.7% C: 0.3, 0.8% P: 1.0, 1.2% Supported by tax rebates and lax monetary policy, consumer spending, particularly on non-durable goods and services, proved resilient in the second quarter. On the contrary, spending on durable goods deteriorated significantly. For instance, auto sales ?about a third of total consumers? spending on durable goods- dropped 4.9% to 13.6 million of annualized units in June; this was the lowest level

Financial market woes trigger upside push in gold & silver
London, 14 July 2008 - With fresh highs in oil stoking inflation fears and credit liquidity & write-down fears triggering flight-to-safety demand from investors the precious metals closed with strong gains last week, with both gold and silver clearing key chart levels. NYMEX crude hit a record $147.27 and closed with a gain of $3.43 at $145.08/barrel. In addition SOS?s to the Fed/Treasury from Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac sent out fresh jitters about the health and stability of US mortgage

Marilyn McDonald with us: keep it simple!
Marilyn, a trader and the Director of Marketing at InterbankFX, said it perfectly: you can add so many indicators to your charts that you can’t even see the price anymore. And that’s too complex. Today, we talked with Marilyn about her trading, her advice to new traders, her book, and more. Click to listen to today’s show Why we add to losing positions Pierre Charlebois over at FXStreet (in his excellent blog) talks about why traders add to losing positions: We hate to be wrong. It?s that

Oil price decline short-lived, brings no relief to dollar
Highlights Banks? problems and weak stocks weigh on dollar; euro firm Bernanke comments on monetary policy; no interest rate signal to be expected Bernanke before Congress The forex markets seem to be reverting to old habits. While the dollar lost ground against the euro and the eastern European currencies, it remained firm against the yen. EUR-USD had dropped back from 1.59 to almost 1.56 after the ECB Council meeting, but is now moving in the direction of 1.58 again. USD-JPY on the other

Daily Forex Overview
Previous session overview On Friday, the euro almost hit a record high against the dollar on worries about mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A sharp fall in U.S. stocks, along with a fresh record high for crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, sent the euro to an 11-week high of USD1.5949 - less than a cent from its record peak of USD1.6020. The Euro made solid gains against the dollar as banking concerns weighed breaking above 1.5900 as Oil and Gold surged higher.

Strong koruna helps Czech bonds
Headlines Currencies: Fanie and Fredie crisis attracts the short term capital to the region Fixed Income: Strong koruna helps Czech bonds Currencies The inflow of the short term speculative capital to the region continues. Hence the Czech koruna in line with the Polish zloty continued its rally and touched new records at 23.40 EUR/CZK. The optimism in Central Europe was triggered by the nervousness around US agencies Fanie Mae and Fredie Mac that initiated additional weakness in US dollar and

The US economic calendar will start on Tuesday with the release offset of sig…
Past Week’s Data and Events Geopolitical and systemic risk, along with the fundamental change in energy costs, pressured the dollar during the past week, but only the euro and the Australian dollar surged. Sunday brought some sort of solution to the problem, so the US currency has a good chance to make at least a minor recovery. But keep an eye on the shaky S&P 500. United States The dollar has been on the defensive during the past week amid a growing load of significant problems, but may

The Market Is At The Mercy of Oil Prices
The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Paulson said stabilization of the financial system would require some more time while the Fed Chairman Bernanke emphasized that financial turmoil was an ongoing issue. Dovish comments from the 2 authorities dragged down the USD. Also,the recent restless oil prices have had a large impact on the USD. WTI oil prices have hit a fresh record-high above $146.00 a barrel. The global economy faces a challenging situation. The week has several significant events. On

Another knock for US equity indices this week as more wake up to reality
Overview Another knock for US equity indices this week as more wake up to reality, which is: there is no money! Many are desperate to shore up balance sheets and the last thing they?ll do is lend it to those who really need it (as is always the case with bankers). Meanwhile lack of confidence in the system, and in ?fiat? money itself, is causing traditional funding pipelines to dry up. This is a true ?crunch? which a) is far from over, b) could get a lot worse and c) will affect the ?real?

Initially, the USD gained on the report
Under pressure this morning the US dollar broke through its recent range as record-high oil prices have continued weigh on the USD and markets. Over the past 2-months, dollar?s losses have been capped at $1.5910 against the euro, though today we may be looking at the dollar weakening to levels not seen since April. Additionally, heightened worries about the U.S. financial sector after news the U.S. government is considering taking over mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are

Fannie and Freddie’s Troubles are a Lose-Lose for the US Dollar
Euro Within 1 Penny of its Record Highs British Pound: Time for Some Action Fannie and Freddie?s Troubles are a Lose-Lose for the US Dollar Calling the financial markets active today is practically an understatement. The combination of soaring oil prices and problems with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac triggered sharp volatility in the equity and currency market. At one point during the US trading session, the Dow jumped 200 points within minutes, driving EUR/JPY to a record high. The market was

FX Levels for Today July 14
Overview The USD fell across the board on Friday as new credit fears came to the fore following talk of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae requiring a government bail-out. (with names like that, no wonder the companies need assistance) The EUR/USD has risen to 1.5970 in early trade today on the back of friday’s gains, but the USD is starting to show some life following comments from Paulson suggesting the government was ready to provide assitance. Keep in mind that this will be positive

Lingering Fears hit Dollar
7/11/2008 3:54 PM: EUR/$..1.5924 $/JPY..106.38 GBP/$..1.9863 $/CHF..1.0162 AUD/$..0.9656 $/CAD..1.0099 Lingering Fears hit Dollar The greenback slumped in the Friday session amid a combination of persistent concerns over the solvency of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and rallies in the commodity markets, particularly oil trading to $147 per barrel. The dollar plunged to a 25-year low against the Australian dollar beyond the 0.97-level to 0.9715 on the heels of surging commodity prices and crept

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Analysis of security values grounded in basic factors such as earnings, balance sheet variables, and management quality. Fundamental analysis attempts to determine the true value of a security, and, if the market price of the stock deviates from this value, to take advantage of the difference by acquiring or selling the stock. Fundamental analysis may involve investigating a firm’s financial statements, visiting its managers, or examining how a particular industry is affected by changes in the economy.

How Far Will Housing Prices Fall?
We are repeatedly asked how far housing prices will fall and when home prices will bottom out. The answers to these questions are complicated. The current housing slump is without precedent, both in terms of breadth and magnitude. In addition, home prices are measured several different ways and the magnitude of price changes varies considerably.

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Developments
The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Department announced a series of measures to bolster confidence and the liquidity position of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Federal Reserve announced Sunday night that it will allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to borrow from the discount window at the primary credit rate ?should such lending prove necessary.? Borrowing would be collateralized by U .S. government and federal agency securities. The Fed noted that the move is intended to supplement the

Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang, his popularity at a record low
LATIN AMERICA Argentina Argentine central bank President Martin Redrado said emerging economies are coping with a global credit squeeze and helping to shore up economic growth across the world. “Emerging markets are weathering very well for the first time a storm that has not been produced in emerging markets,” he said in an Bloomberg Television interview in Aix-en- Provence, France. “The deceleration will not be so big in the world economy because of the strength of emerging markets.”

Headwinds Intensify
U.S. Review Headwinds Intensify Economic activity still appears to be holding up at a pace that is consistent with at least modest economic growth. This week had a relatively light economic release schedule but the reports that were released tended to come in stronger than expected. Major reports include the ICSC chain store sales figures, which came were up 4.3 percent year-to-year. Chain store sales are clearly being bolstered by tax rebates. Most of the impact has been at discount stores

US: Smaller trade deficit & surging import prices
The May trade balance showed an unexpected improvement. The smaller deficit of 59.8 billion $ (60.5 billion $ in April and 62.5 billion $ expected) was due to a surprise decline in the quantity of oil imported that overcompensated for the higher oil prices. The quantity of oil imported was the lowest since October 2002. Taking a step backward, the improvement in the real trade deficit was impressive: 43.6 billion $ versus 46.7 billion $ previously. Looking at the April/May combined deficit

Financial concerns about Freddie & Fannie hit Treasuries, equities and dollar
Markets: Fixed Income On Friday, US Treasuries had an ugly session, but so had global equities and the dollar. It doesn?t happen quite often that all three markets at the same time go the same direction. Concerns about the financial stability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was the dominating trading theme, but also soaring oil prices on fears that Israeli air forces were practising for an attack on Iran and Treasury-unfriendly eco data were playing a role in the Treasury market. The European

$1.6 Trillion in Losses and Counting
In this issue: $1.6 Trillion in Losses and Counting Banks Start to Reduce Their Lending Take Freddie Mac. Please. The Ugly Muddle Through Once Again, the BLS Numbers Paint a False Picture Las Vegas, Maine, and a Wedding It seems that with each passing month the estimates for losses in the international banking system keep rising. This time last summer the largest estimates (from credible sources), if memory serves me correct, were around $400 billion, give or take a few months. By the end of

Websites You May Want To Consider
When it comes to trading and trading education, there are thousands of companies and websites trying to grab your eye balls and dollars. Most are slick marketing with little value so what is the new trader to do? Good places to start are the actual exchange websites for the following reasons: 1) They are the home of the “markets” we trade. The exchanges want you trading their products which is why they are so helpful both online and with phone support. 2) The education departments at the

Beset on all sides
Plunging business confidence and continued pressure on households has put the acid on the Reserve Bank to deliver some relief soon. But this week the focus turns to the RBNZ?s other problem ? inflation is on the rise and heading well outside the target range. Retail sales fell 1.2% in May, dominated by a 14.8% fall in motor vehicle sales. The car market is under more pressure than most from tight credit, high interest rates and rising petrol prices, with petrol breaching the psychologically

USD close to record low
Oil rose to new record high and fell again U.S. takes bold steps NZ retail sales fall steepest in 4 years Today?s main events: GBP PPI EUR Industrial Production GBP RICS house Price Balance American Time Zone: USD close to record low The dollar dropped to within a cent of the alltime low against the euro on concern the U.S. government may be forced to take over mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Oil rose to new record high Crude oil and gasoline rose to records on growing concern

Treasury to lend to Fannie and Freddie, Bush backs Israel plan for strike on …
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson on Sunday asked Congress to approve a rescue package that would give officials the power to inject billions of federal dollars into Freddie and Fannie through investments and loans. The Fed also announced it would make one of its short-term lending programs available to the two companies. Some officials briefed on the plan said Congress could be asked to extend the total line of credit to the institutions to $300B, according to the New York Times. To “protect

Surprise Narrowing of Trade Deficit in May
Surprise Narrowing of Trade Deficit in May The trade deficit narrowed to $59.8 billion in May from $60.5 billion in April. Exports of goods and services increased 0.9% in May after a 3.7% gain in April. It is widely predicted that exports will continue to make a significant contribution to GDP in the quarters ahead. This view may have to tempered somewhat because latest economic reports from abroad are less sanguine than have been in recent months. Economic reports from the European Union are

Mixed news from the US this week
Spreads have remained more or less stable compared to last week but intraweek volatility has been substantial on the back of some mixed news from the US. Bernanke has indicated that the primary dealer lending facility will be extended into 2009, but markets turned sour after questions were raised over the solvency of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In Denmark one of the larger mid-sized Danish Banks, Roskilde Bank, has put itself up for sale. Despite substantial volatility during the week, spreads

U.S Market Update
- The plunging equity valuations of the GSE’s continue to exhibit a stranglehold over US stock markets. The New York Times reported overnight that the Bush administration was mulling a government takeover of FNM-43% and FRE-48%, with the report speculating that a buyout could leave shareholders with nothing. The White House later declined to comment on its deliberations, noting that the best thing for the GSEs would be for Congress to enact oversight legislation. After the open, Treasury

Mortgage tremors rocking the financial world!
he ground is shaking. The buildings are swaying. Now, you have to wonder how many of them will come tumbling down. I’m talking about the major financial institutions in this country. The tremors in the mortgage market that first started rumbling a year ago have escalated. And now they’re ripping through the industry with the force of a 9.0 earthquake … It’s no longer just mortgages that are shaking the biggest banks, brokers, and insurance firms. Auto loans, credit cards, commercial real

Widening EMU output gap to keep core inflation in check
Growth. Italy is teetering on the brink of recession, Spain?s economy is in free fall, France is ailing, and even Germany can no longer escape the global downward pull: After the strong start into the year, German GDP is expected to have contracted this spring. And the economy will continue to merely plod along over the coming quarters (pages 2-4). Inflation. GDP growth persistently below trend EMU-wide will, however, see core inflation moderate again in the mid-term. Our output gap model

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Economic Events & Indicators analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the interests of the economy, industrial sectors and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast for the future. Learning the monthly sequence of economic releases and market reaction to each release is one of the first steps in learning to track the economy. Forex traders should be taught to compare market expectations with actual economic indicators and then evaluate market reactions. Key Economic Indicators have strong effects on Forex Market so currency traders should be aware of them when preparing strategies. Many profitable forex trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements.

German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have deteriorated in July
EMU industrial production is expected to have decreased significantly in May HICP inflation in the euro area will probably be confirmed at 4.0% yoy for June In July , the German ZEW economic sentiment will probably have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive time. The US ISM manufacturing index improved slightly, but the correlated ifo indicators plummeted. Moreover, the euro has remained strong and the German yield spread has deteriorated recently, as long-term interest rates have gone down

Week of 7/14/2008 thru 7/18/2008
Monday, July 14, 2008 Economic None Seen Events 10:00am Fed Governors vote on mortgage rules in open meeting. Merrill Lynch Samurai Conference New York. SEMICON West 2008semiconductor trade show. Trades Ex-dividend: MGRC $0.20, ZEP $0.04,ALG $0.06, AM $0.12, BSET $0.75. Earnings Before the Open: MTB. After the Close: ELS, DNA , JBHT , NVLS, STLY. Tuesday, July 15, 2008 Economic 8:30am June PPI (last m/m 1.4%, y/y 7.2%, ex food & energy last m/m 0.2%,y/y 3.0%), June Advanced Retail Sales

UMI consumer sentiment could remain at a long-term low in July
The trade deficit is likely to have risen noticeably again due to the surge in import prices Pending home sales rebounded unexpectedly in April by 6.3% mom, thus almost making up for their decline from November to March. However, the improvement could have been due to seasonal factors, and as the deterioration in the housing market is far from over, we expect pending home sales to have fallen back noticeably by 4% mom in May. Wholesale inventories went up by 1.3% mom in April, partly because

Output in the German producing sector might have remained unchanged in May
Despite the fact that the correlated ifo indicators improved, output in the German producing sector is likely to have declined in May , because industrial new orders dropped for the sixth time in a row. The German trade balance might have decreased in May too, after having gone up unexpectedly the previous month. Similarly, the German current account is likely to have deteriorated too. After its surprising increase in April, French industrial production probably suffered a setback in May,

7-11 July 2008
The Weekly Overview shows significant economic events during the Week 07 July ? 11 July 2008

Week of 7/7/2008 thru 7/11/2008
Monday, July 07, 2008 Economic 11:00am Treasury’s 10-year TIPS announcement Events 11:00am Fed’s Yellen speaks about US economic outlook in San Diego. Trades Ex-split: PDO 5-4, YZC 5-1. Trades Ex-dividend: BBV $0.216. Earnings Before the Open: MERX. After the Close: None seen. Tuesday, July 08, 2008 Economic 10:00am May Pending Home Sales m/m (last 6.3%), May Wholesale Inventories (last 1.3%) 3:00pm May Consumer Credit (last $8.9B) Events 8:30am Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks about mortgage

July 2008 Calendar - Update
July 2008 Calendar

July 2008

June ISM indices are likely to have deteriorated
Non-farm payrolls could have declined sharply by 80k in June The ISM manufacturing index had improved somewhat in May, albeit remaining below the expansion threshold. But the regional manufacturing indices published so far in June have all been weaker, indicating that the ISM manufacturing index will have declined markedly to 47.8. The Chicago PMI , which had also improved in May, could have fallen as well, to about 48.5. In contrast to its manufacturing counterpart, the ISM non-manufacturing

The flash estimate for June could show EMU inflation increasing to 3.9 % yoy
German adjusted unemployment could have fallen by 20k in June German industrial new orders might have remained unchanged in May German retail sales could have remained stable in May ECB set to raise refi rate to 4.25% The Eurostat flash estimate is likely to show that euro area inflation has accelerated to a new record of 3.9% yoy in June . This would correspond with a monthly increase of 0.3% in unadjusted terms. As in Germany, the monthly inflation rate will have been mainly due to record

Week of 6/30/2008 thru 7/4/2008
Monday, June 30, 2008 Economic 9:45am June Chicago Purchasing Manager (last 49.1) 10:00am June NAPM-Milwaukee (last 45) Events Bank of America Bond Insurers Conference. SNI added to the S&P 500 after the close .FFIN and SSP added to the S&P 600 after the close. TradesEx-dividend: AGNC $0.31, FRP $0.258, BBD $0.08, BNS $0.495, CAE $0.20. Earnings Before the Open: LPHI, RBN, UDW. After the Close: HRB , HMX. Tuesday, July 01, 2008 Economic 10:00am June ISM Manufacturing (last 49.6), June

June consumer confidence indices are likely to decline further from long-time…
Durable goods orders could have risen slightly in May due to transportation FOMC is likely to leave the fed funds rate unchanged, placing more emphasis on inflation risks The Conference Board?s consumer confidence fell from 62.8 to 57.2 in May, only about half the level of the last cyclical high in July 2007. Given the sharp rise in the unemployment rate from 5.0 to 5.5% in May, we expect consumer confidence to fall to about 55.0 in June. We already know that the University of Michigan?s (UMI)

The German ifo business climate is expected to have deteriorated in June
The June RBS PMI manufacturing indices for Germany and the EMU could decrease too CPI inflation in Germany is likely to have accelerated slightly to 3.2 % yoy in June M3 growth will probably have fallen to 10.3% yoy in May The German ifo business climate index is likely to have deteriorated by at least 0.5% in June , after having soared unexpectedly in May. The US ISM manufacturing index improved recently, but the German ZEW economic sentiment dropped. The euro has depreciated somewhat and the

Week of 6/23/2008 thru 6/27/2008
Monday, June 23, 2008 Economic None Seen Events UBS Taiwan Conference. Wachovia Nantucket Equity Conference. Trades Ex-dividend: FLS $0.25, KBALB $0.16, TS $0.50. Earnings Before the Open: WAG . After the Close: None seen. Tuesday, June 24, 2008 Economic 9:00am April S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 172.2), April S&P/CS Composite-20 y/y (last ?14.4%) 10:00am June Consumer Confidence (last 57.2), June Richmond Fed ManufacturingIndex (last -3), April Housing Price Index m/m (last ?0.4%)

HICP inflation in the euro area will probably be revised up to 3.7% yoy for May
German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have improved somewhat in June The German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have improved somewhat in June , just as the correlated ifo indicators and the US ISM manufacturing index recently did. Moreover, the euro has depreciated somewhat and the German yield spread has improved, as long-term interest rates have gone up more than short-term ones. However, the crude oil price has soared and the DAX performance index has decreased recently. According

First regional June PMIs are likely to remain in negative territory
Producer price inflation could have accelerated in May, particularly due to energy Housing starts and permits will probably have corrected downwards in May Industrial production and leading indicators could have stagnated in May After having rebounded in April, the New York Empire manufacturing index had fallen below the expansion threshold again in May. As the latest Beige Book stated that manufacturing activity had weakened in the New York area, we expect the New York Empire index to

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A synopsis of what it takes to deal with success trading the forex market

This is the first article of a series whose purpose is both educational and practical. And above all they aim to be interactive meaning that any comments suggestions or ideas are more than welcome.

Lets start from the basics. The first thing someone needs is very good education. And this requires a lot of thorough research as there are many sources but not all are worth the money for their services. So in this sense an online forex course could be a good idea along with some books. But here comes the first major problem. Which course and which books, which aspects to cover? The technical analysis issue? The maxim goes with the trend? The candlesticks analysis? And which system to use and follow? There are thousands of them! So before we even begin a trader is confused. And confusion is a very bad enemy but it can be arranged. How it can be arranged? With some simple steps. Such as simplicity. The more you know the better chances you have to succeed trading forex and it all comes down to probabilities.

Education is a must to all trading aspects from stocks to futures to forex. But forex has two unique features. High liquidity and extremely high leverage. And although the liquidity is a very good feature high leverage is not. At least not until you know what you are doing. Here we focus again on education. Besides a participation in a forex course either online or not, an amount that will be put away as an investment for education is the first thing a trader must do. Some ideas are to focus on analyzing the current conditions of the market and to have a bias for a specific currency pair. A system such as following the trend could be the core of a trading strategy. And a demo account with many virtual trades as many as possible for a long period of time is the next step.

Now the most important part of the trading action is to make a plan, stick to it and apply very strict money management rules because if the capital is finished and it very easy this to happen then our trading career will finish within a few days, months or even hours.

Lets face the truth that trading is not easy. It is unfortunately far easier for someone to lose all his account rather than make wild profits beyond each expectation. That is because emotions and psychology are very crucial for success. Some of the most important emotions are fear, uncertainty, euphoria and revenge. Revenge comes into play very often as when someone loses an amount wants desperately to get it back and often the outcome is that more loses come simply because the trader is on the wrong side of the trend!

Discipline and patience are virtues that distinguish a good trader from a mediocre trader. Without specific goals and a written procedure a trader is like a cargo ship that has sailed without any destination. Someday the fuel will be exhausted and many dangers from the weather to the potential physical damages may happen. Risks exist all the time. The point is how to deal with them.

One of the most useful phrases is taken from the movie Forrest Gump.Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you going to get!

It is true. Be as prepared as possible. Do not let the brokers excite you promising very high returns and extremely high leverage? Do some very thorough research before opening an account funded with real money. Compare the bid-ask spreads and technical support to name only a few aspects.

Be very skeptical to previous results as offered from many signal services. The major aim should be to learn to trade and make your own decisions and not blindly follow some others decisions and opinions. Confidence and experience come with the passage of time.

So we mentioned simplicity before. Being realistic and having a controlled life balance is very important. One major goal should be consistency so as to have the ability to make profits each month and keep them.

Fundamental news is another important issue and in essence the technical analysis is the mirror of fundamentals. Expectations change rapidly and emotions also. And if you think about it emotions and expectations mainly move the forex market. Most times like the recent Fed rate hike decision a move is under way but the danger is when it will be finished and certainly not getting in at the wrong time after all the move is completed.

The best approach for a trader would be to set specific goals and if achieved then stop trading. The worst idea is to trade in a choppy market where random noise will make it difficult to get specific profits.

So a tested system with very precise rules such as entering exiting and having stop-loss orders may not be a holly grail but is surely one very good approach to start with and focus on it. Pivot points are such a system. At least it is a good start. They encompass education, discipline, strict criteria, and targets and are a proven system that major players use. They are not foolproof always as nothing is certain but they deal with high probabilities and this is very important.

Also a very practical way is to act as organizes as possible. Meaning that:

1.Develop your own trading journal where you will be writing down your trades and a brief explanation of what made you place a particular trade so as to evaluate performance. Note each day the major economic releases if any because it is often wise to be out of the market before the release of the news and trade only after having a much clearer opinion of what price action may be. Remember it is all about high probabilities.

2.A risk/reward ratio of 1:2 meaning that you risk an amount to get at least the twice if all go well is suggested but sometimes it is best to be conservative and even apply an 1:1 ratio by applying very strict risk management risking no more than 2-3% of total capital per trade. Survival is everything.

3.It would be a good idea from time to time to have breaks from trading. Opportunities exist always so stopping trading when losses of 10-20% maximum of trading capital have accumulated is a good way to revaluate what is going on before a large amount of capital is lost. Trading is not gambling it is a way of investment. The philosophy should be to define realistic goals such as a number of pips per day and if achieved then stop trading. Greed is another bad enemy of traders. On the contrary the notion of compounding profits and retiring a portion of them each month is a good way to build a solid account and keep monitoring its growth.

So in this first article we touched briefly many ideas from education to psychology to a proven trading system etc. Each idea will have more in depth analysis in the very near future. Your comments and suggestions will help us a lot to focus on what you need or want to analyze. Above all interactive communication brings the best results.

That

The forex market is quickly becoming one of the most popular markets for trading.

Not only are the experienced traders looking to this market to maximize their trading returns, but many new, individual investors are now able to trade the Forex market - just as they do stocks and futures.

More and more individuals are seeing Forex not only as a new way to diversify their portfolio, but are also finding that it is becoming the most profitable component of their investments. And that’s because of the many advantages Forex offers over other markets like stocks or commodities. Here’s what you will typically see advertized about Forex:

- Unparallelled liquidity. It is the largest financial market in the world by far. Almost $2 trillion being traded daily!
- Excellent leverage potential. Individual investors have access to leverage of 100:1 and even 200:1
- No Commissions
- Low trading costs.

And yes, the Forex market really does offer all these advantages. But the last two points above talk about costs, and that’s what we’d like to focus on in this article.

Like any trading, there are costs involved, and, while these may be much lower than they used to be, it is important to understand what those are.

Let’s start by looking at stock trading, something that most of us investors are pretty familiar with. When trading stocks, most investors will have a trading account with a broker somewhere and will have investment funds deposited in that account. The broker will then execute the trades on behalf of the account holder, and of course, in return for providing that service, the broker will want to be compensated. With stocks, typically, the broker will earn a commission for executing the trade. They will charge either a fixed dollar amount per trade, or a dollar amount per share, or (most commonly) a scaled commission based on how big your trade is. And, they will charge it on both sides of the transaction. That is to say, when you buy the stock you get charged commission, AND then when you sell that same stock you get charged another commission.

With Forex trading, the brokers constantly advertise “no commission”. And, of course that’s true - except for a few brokers, who do charge a commission similar to stocks.
But also, of course, the brokers aren’t performing their trading services for free. They too make money.

The way they do that is by charging the investor a “spread”. Simply put, the spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price for the currency being traded.
The broker will add this spread onto the price of the trade and keep it as their fee for trading.

So, while it isn’t a commission per se, it behaves in practically the same way. It is just a little more hidden.

The good news though is that typically this spread is only charged on one side of the transaction. In other words, you don’t pay the spread when you buy AND then again when you sell. It is usually only charged on the “buy” side of the trades.

So the spread really is your primary cost of trading the Forex and you should pay attention to the details of what the different brokers offer.

The spreads offered can vary pretty dramatically from broker to broker. And while it may not seem like much of a difference to be trading with a 5 pip spread vs a 4 pip spread, it actually can add up very quickly when you multiply it out by how many trades you make and how much money you’re trading. Think about it, 4 pips vs 5 pips is a difference of 25% on your trading costs.

The other thing to recognize is that spreads can vary based on what currencies you’re trading and what type of account you open.

Most brokers will give you different spreads for different currencies. The most popular currency pairs like the EURUSD or GBPUSD will typically have the lowest spreads, while currencies that have less demand will likely be traded with higher spreads.

Be sure to think about what currencies you are most likely to be trading and find out what your spreads will be for those currencies.

Also, some brokers will offer different spreads for different types of accounts. A mini account, for example, may be subject to higher spreads than a full contract account.

And finally, because the spreads really are the difference between bid prices and ask prices as determined by the free market, it is important to recognize that they are not “guaranteed”. Most brokers will tell you that there may be times during periods of low demand, or very active trading when the spreads widen and you will be charged that wider spread.

These do tend to be rarer situations because the volume in the Forex market is so large and demand and supply are generally quite predictable. But they do occur, especially with some of the lesser traded currencies. So it’s important to be aware of that.

In summary then, when trading Forex, understand that the “spread” is truly your most important consideration for trading costs.

Spreads can vary significantly between brokers, account types and currencies traded. And small differences in the spread can really add up to thousands of dollars in trading costs over even just a few months.

So be sure to consider carefully what currencies you are going to be trading, how frequently, and in what type of account and use those factors to help you decide which broker can offer you the best trading costs and allow you to keep more of your returns as net profits!

Foreign exchange,