Economic Events & Indicators analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the interests of the economy, industrial sectors and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast for the future. Learning the monthly sequence of economic releases and market reaction to each release is one of the first steps in learning to track the economy. Forex traders should be taught to compare market expectations with actual economic indicators and then evaluate market reactions. Key Economic Indicators have strong effects on Forex Market so currency traders should be aware of them when preparing strategies. Many profitable forex trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements.

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German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have deteriorated in July
EMU industrial production is expected to have decreased significantly in May HICP inflation in the euro area will probably be confirmed at 4.0% yoy for June In July , the German ZEW economic sentiment will probably have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive time. The US ISM manufacturing index improved slightly, but the correlated ifo indicators plummeted. Moreover, the euro has remained strong and the German yield spread has deteriorated recently, as long-term interest rates have gone down

Week of 7/14/2008 thru 7/18/2008
Monday, July 14, 2008 Economic None Seen Events 10:00am Fed Governors vote on mortgage rules in open meeting. Merrill Lynch Samurai Conference New York. SEMICON West 2008semiconductor trade show. Trades Ex-dividend: MGRC $0.20, ZEP $0.04,ALG $0.06, AM $0.12, BSET $0.75. Earnings Before the Open: MTB. After the Close: ELS, DNA , JBHT , NVLS, STLY. Tuesday, July 15, 2008 Economic 8:30am June PPI (last m/m 1.4%, y/y 7.2%, ex food & energy last m/m 0.2%,y/y 3.0%), June Advanced Retail Sales

UMI consumer sentiment could remain at a long-term low in July
The trade deficit is likely to have risen noticeably again due to the surge in import prices Pending home sales rebounded unexpectedly in April by 6.3% mom, thus almost making up for their decline from November to March. However, the improvement could have been due to seasonal factors, and as the deterioration in the housing market is far from over, we expect pending home sales to have fallen back noticeably by 4% mom in May. Wholesale inventories went up by 1.3% mom in April, partly because

Output in the German producing sector might have remained unchanged in May
Despite the fact that the correlated ifo indicators improved, output in the German producing sector is likely to have declined in May , because industrial new orders dropped for the sixth time in a row. The German trade balance might have decreased in May too, after having gone up unexpectedly the previous month. Similarly, the German current account is likely to have deteriorated too. After its surprising increase in April, French industrial production probably suffered a setback in May,

7-11 July 2008
The Weekly Overview shows significant economic events during the Week 07 July ? 11 July 2008

Week of 7/7/2008 thru 7/11/2008
Monday, July 07, 2008 Economic 11:00am Treasury’s 10-year TIPS announcement Events 11:00am Fed’s Yellen speaks about US economic outlook in San Diego. Trades Ex-split: PDO 5-4, YZC 5-1. Trades Ex-dividend: BBV $0.216. Earnings Before the Open: MERX. After the Close: None seen. Tuesday, July 08, 2008 Economic 10:00am May Pending Home Sales m/m (last 6.3%), May Wholesale Inventories (last 1.3%) 3:00pm May Consumer Credit (last $8.9B) Events 8:30am Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks about mortgage

July 2008 Calendar - Update
July 2008 Calendar

July 2008

June ISM indices are likely to have deteriorated
Non-farm payrolls could have declined sharply by 80k in June The ISM manufacturing index had improved somewhat in May, albeit remaining below the expansion threshold. But the regional manufacturing indices published so far in June have all been weaker, indicating that the ISM manufacturing index will have declined markedly to 47.8. The Chicago PMI , which had also improved in May, could have fallen as well, to about 48.5. In contrast to its manufacturing counterpart, the ISM non-manufacturing

The flash estimate for June could show EMU inflation increasing to 3.9 % yoy
German adjusted unemployment could have fallen by 20k in June German industrial new orders might have remained unchanged in May German retail sales could have remained stable in May ECB set to raise refi rate to 4.25% The Eurostat flash estimate is likely to show that euro area inflation has accelerated to a new record of 3.9% yoy in June . This would correspond with a monthly increase of 0.3% in unadjusted terms. As in Germany, the monthly inflation rate will have been mainly due to record

Week of 6/30/2008 thru 7/4/2008
Monday, June 30, 2008 Economic 9:45am June Chicago Purchasing Manager (last 49.1) 10:00am June NAPM-Milwaukee (last 45) Events Bank of America Bond Insurers Conference. SNI added to the S&P 500 after the close .FFIN and SSP added to the S&P 600 after the close. TradesEx-dividend: AGNC $0.31, FRP $0.258, BBD $0.08, BNS $0.495, CAE $0.20. Earnings Before the Open: LPHI, RBN, UDW. After the Close: HRB , HMX. Tuesday, July 01, 2008 Economic 10:00am June ISM Manufacturing (last 49.6), June

June consumer confidence indices are likely to decline further from long-time…
Durable goods orders could have risen slightly in May due to transportation FOMC is likely to leave the fed funds rate unchanged, placing more emphasis on inflation risks The Conference Board?s consumer confidence fell from 62.8 to 57.2 in May, only about half the level of the last cyclical high in July 2007. Given the sharp rise in the unemployment rate from 5.0 to 5.5% in May, we expect consumer confidence to fall to about 55.0 in June. We already know that the University of Michigan?s (UMI)

The German ifo business climate is expected to have deteriorated in June
The June RBS PMI manufacturing indices for Germany and the EMU could decrease too CPI inflation in Germany is likely to have accelerated slightly to 3.2 % yoy in June M3 growth will probably have fallen to 10.3% yoy in May The German ifo business climate index is likely to have deteriorated by at least 0.5% in June , after having soared unexpectedly in May. The US ISM manufacturing index improved recently, but the German ZEW economic sentiment dropped. The euro has depreciated somewhat and the

Week of 6/23/2008 thru 6/27/2008
Monday, June 23, 2008 Economic None Seen Events UBS Taiwan Conference. Wachovia Nantucket Equity Conference. Trades Ex-dividend: FLS $0.25, KBALB $0.16, TS $0.50. Earnings Before the Open: WAG . After the Close: None seen. Tuesday, June 24, 2008 Economic 9:00am April S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 172.2), April S&P/CS Composite-20 y/y (last ?14.4%) 10:00am June Consumer Confidence (last 57.2), June Richmond Fed ManufacturingIndex (last -3), April Housing Price Index m/m (last ?0.4%)

HICP inflation in the euro area will probably be revised up to 3.7% yoy for May
German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have improved somewhat in June The German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have improved somewhat in June , just as the correlated ifo indicators and the US ISM manufacturing index recently did. Moreover, the euro has depreciated somewhat and the German yield spread has improved, as long-term interest rates have gone up more than short-term ones. However, the crude oil price has soared and the DAX performance index has decreased recently. According

First regional June PMIs are likely to remain in negative territory
Producer price inflation could have accelerated in May, particularly due to energy Housing starts and permits will probably have corrected downwards in May Industrial production and leading indicators could have stagnated in May After having rebounded in April, the New York Empire manufacturing index had fallen below the expansion threshold again in May. As the latest Beige Book stated that manufacturing activity had weakened in the New York area, we expect the New York Empire index to

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