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Weekly Technical Commentary
USD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 105.65..105.00..103.70..102.50. Resistance 107.75..108.59..109.00..111.60 Surprisingly unaffected by the storm clouds gathering all round. The corrective rally continues to hold in a very neat channel and at-the-money implied volatility has stabilised around 11.00%. The Technical picture is still very inconclusive and chart levels poor but we feel that shortly signs of forming an interim top will emerge. Here and on generalised US dollar weakness, thin summer

Currency Technical Report
EUR/USD Resistance :1,5925/ 1,5950-55/ 1,5975/ 1,6020/ 1,6050/ 1,6080 Support : 1,5675-80/ 1,5635/ 1,5580/ 1,5525 Comment : After oil reaching new all time highs, and market?s fears that US banking sector may collapse due to Freddie Mac?s and Fannie Mae?s liquidity problems, euro rallied during Friday?s US Session, within a panic environment. The way and the time that the move was formed may have had this purpose; to cause panic and hit stops set above the technical resistance of 1.5900-10.

gbp/usd has weakened after PPI input and output publication
CHF The pre-planned breakout variant for sells has been realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator having marked the progress of bearish activity preserves the priority of attendant planning for today. Hence and because of ascending direction of indicator chart with the feature of strengthening of bullish counteraction, we assume a possibility of pair return to resistance range 1.0220/40, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development according to

Forex Technical Analysis on Majors
EUR/USD Current level-1.5881 EUR/USD is in an uptrend from recent bottom at 1.5301, that was the final of the prolonged consolidation since 1.5909 (17 March 2008). Technical indicators are slowly rising and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.5609 and 1.5095.     The sharp Friday’s advance beyond 1.5909 has denied our idea, that a there is one more swing to come, down to 1.5584, as a third part of the consolidation pattern since 1.5909.

Euro-Bund future ?Sep 2008
Comment: The spread between Bunds and US Treasuries should narrow as generalised US dollar weakness continues throughout the summer. The Bund?s recovery has stalled at trendline and Fibonacci resistance, and by the Ichimoku ?cloud?, suggesting we shall consolidate below 112.50 this week, possibly pulling back all the way down to 110.50. Late this month and by the end of August another round of short-covering taking the contract back to 113.00/113.50. Before year-end we feel that benchmark

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shocked the market
Good morning from Hamburg. At the end of last week, large US mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shocked the equity markets, as well as the Forex market, with higher than expected losses. With upcoming US elections, it is a good opportunity for politicians to use it in their own election campaigns. This is very dangerous for the fight against the inflation. It is still unsure how the interest rates will move in the next month. Market review The USD lost on Friday after the Fed and the

Technical Summary for Majors
DAILY MARKET REPORT 14.07.2008 EUR/USD Has accelerated advance following last Friday’s minor bull pennant breakout to extend upswing from 1.5611 higher low, 07 July, which took out prior 1.5910 high, 03 July. Further rise is set to test April’s record high at 1.6020 and 1.6050 zones. Pullback for now seeks a swing low over 1.5805/00 while 60-hour/10-day MA bull crossover beckons. Res: 1.5978, 1.6002, 1.6020, 1.6050 Sup: 1.5876, 1.5836, 1.5795, 1.5765 USD/JPY Has broken sharply out of past

Daily Forex Technical Report - Markets Stabilized by FNM/FRE Rescue Package
Action Insight Daily Report Markets Stabilized by FNM/FRE Rescue Package Markets are stabilized by US Treasury and Fed’s rescue package to save Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from further troubles and ensure both Government Sponsored Enterprises to continue to be key providers of mortgage credits in the US. Treasury Paulson asked Congress to inject capital into both GSEs trough investments and loans, including buying shares of both of them. Fed also announced it will provide liquidity by allowing

EUR: Attempt small longs at 1.5885 but only if prepared to add to 1.5800
EUR Comment: To put it crudely: if the US government takes over all $5 trillion of the GSE home lenders the debt-to-GDP ratio would double to 100% (and then the rating agencies would have to re-do their sums). Eventually this will sink in to investor psyche. We expect generalised US dollar weakness over the next six months, a move which may well gather very considerable momentum. This week allow for several cautious upside tests at the record high of 1.6020. A weekly close above here should

EUR/USD: (1.5896) Toying back with channel bottom off 1.5302 (see graph)
Rebound from 1.5302 extended to a new recovery high, with pair currently toying back with channel bottom (see graph): 1st Support area at 1.5888/ .5884 (daily envelope bottom/ current reaction low off 1.5970), with next levels at 1.5822 (weekly envelope bottom), ahead of 1.5808/ .5800 (daily Short Term Moving Average?/ break-up daily July 10) and 1.5779 (daily Medium Term Moving Average?/ tough on 1st attempts. Resistance at 1.5958/ .5970 (daily Bollinger top/ today?s high?): suspect tough on

Asia Session Performance

Sinking stocks hurt the dollar on Friday
The confluence of geopolitical and systemic risk, and sinking stocks hurt the dollar on Friday. On Sunday, the Treasury and Federal Reserve produced sweeping steps to support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and attempt to avoid a potential meltdown in global financial markets. The Fed said both companies could access its discount window for emergency cash and the Treasury said that it would temporarily increase its line of credit to them, as well as purchase equity in them, if necessary. Expect a

The EUR/ USD gives more surprises + Watching for a blow-off top on the AUD/USD
EURUSD Last week’s rejection of 1.5912 lasted for a few days however after Friday’s move above that price point we have to assume a new high above 1.6020 is possible. What is recommended here in trading a currency that is this volatile is to actually have more patients and enter only when absolutely all your conditions for a  trade have been met. In short, when things are this crazy one needs even more patients. AUDUSD Last week I wrote about this pair looking to make one last high

Fxtechtrade
Several words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) :  1.4692 and 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386, 1.5592 and 1.5660. Break of the letter will lead to 1.5865, 1.7280 and 1.9430. Support (daily close) : : 1.4366 , 1.3972, 1.3770 and 1.3567. Then 1.3411, 1.3263, 1.3106 and  1.2964 (published on  07.11.2007) . Dow Jones : Resistance(daily close) : 11 520.30 , 11 970.00, 12 152.82, 12 600.24, 12 982.20, 13 162.50 and 13 320.00. Then 13 567.60, 13 668.74 ? 13 792.53.

EURUSD broke above 1.5908 resistance
EURUSD broke above 1.5908 resistance. Further rise to test 1.6019 (Apr 22 high) long term key resistance is still possible later today. A break of this level will indicate that the sideways consolidation in range between 1.5284 and 1.6019 has completed, and the pair has been back to long term uptrend. As long as 1.6019 resistance holds, we?d expect down trend to resume, and pullback to retest 1.5611 level is still possible.

US Session Performance

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